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(The following story by Paul Nussbaum appeared on the Philadelphia Inquirer website on October 26.)

PHILADELPHIA — Amtrak workers who have been without a labor contract for seven years have rejected arbitration in their long-running battle, starting a countdown toward what would be the first-ever strike against the nation’s passenger railroad.

A strike, which could not occur until early next year, would also disrupt commuter railroads, including SEPTA and NJ Transit, which operate some of their trains on Amtrak tracks and rely on Amtrak dispatchers.

The possibility of a strike comes at a time of increasing ridership on Amtrak and commuter lines, and against a backdrop of long-standing antipathy toward Amtrak subsidies by the Bush administration.

By yesterday’s deadline, all nine Amtrak unions had rejected an offer of arbitration from the National Mediation Board in Washington.

By law, the mediation board must now declare a 30-day cooling-off period. During that time, the mediation board likely will recommend to President Bush that he appoint a “presidential emergency board.” That board would then have 30 days to hold hearings and report to the White House its recommendations on how to settle the dispute.

After the emergency board makes its recommendations, another 30-day cooling-off period is required, to allow the parties to try to settle. If they don’t, the unions could strike or Amtrak could impose a contract.

Congress could also intervene to impose a settlement or to send the parties to binding arbitration.

The timetable means a strike could not occur until late January or early February.

Amtrak has about 15,000 unionized workers in its workforce of 18,500. About half the union workers are represented by the unions that have rejected arbitration. They include train dispatchers, track repairmen, signal operators, machinists, electricians and coach cleaners.

The dispute centers on health-care contributions, proposed changes in work rules, and back pay to Jan. 1, 2000, when the last contract ended.

Seven years of off-and-on negotiations ended last week, when the mediation board released the unions from further mediation and offered arbitration. The unions’ rejection of arbitration moves the standoff toward a strike or other resolution in the next few months.

“We are under no illusion about the tough fight that lies ahead,” said Robert Scardelletti, president of the Transportation Communications International Union, in a letter to union members. “We know full well that that a Presidential Emergency Board appointed by President Bush may be stacked with anti-union members. But at least now we have a chance to fight for the contract our members have so long deserved.”

“We will mobilize every ounce of labor’s political strength to make sure that if Congress does intervene, it will be on terms favorable to Amtrak workers,” Scardelletti wrote. “For years our congressional friends have told us they support Amtrak workers. They will soon be put to the test.”

Amtrak spokesman Cliff Black put the chances of a strike at “minimal.” He said the Amtrak has offered the unions pay increases averaging about 34 percent for the 10 years from 2000 to 2010, including about 8 percent in partial-cost-of-living raises already paid.

An Amtrak strike would shut about half of SEPTA’s regional rail lines, which Amtrak dispatches and maintains.

“We would not be able to provide bus substitution – our bus fleet is already operating at capacity,” said SEPTA spokesman Richard Maloney. Maloney also noted: “We see no likelihood of an imminent strike. There are still several steps for them to go through.”

At NJ Transit, chief spokeswoman Penny Bassett Hackett said Amtrak’s dispatchers and other workers “are critical to NJ Transit’s operations.”

Amtrak reported record numbers of riders in fiscal 2007, which ended last month. The passenger railroad said it carried 25.8 million riders, up from 24.4 million a year earlier. Ticket revenue also set a record, at $1.5 billion.

More than half of Amtrak’s revenue comes from the busy Northeast Corridor, between Washington and Boston.