(United Press International issued the following story by Rosalie Westenskow on March 12.)
THE DALLES, Ore. — U.S. transportation could suffer major setbacks in coming decades as extreme weather conditions, brought on by climate change, cause serious infrastructure damage, a recent report warns.
Rising temperatures and weather changes pose potential risks to every aspect of the country’s transportation infrastructure, including roads, railways, airport runways, harbors and fuel pipelines, according to the report, “Potential Impacts of Climate Change on U.S. Transportation,” released Tuesday by the National Research Council, a non-profit, non-partisan organization.
If steps are not taken to adapt infrastructure soon, the costs could be catastrophic, said Henry Schwartz, the report’s committee chair.
“Take Hurricane Katrina or Rita, for example,” he said. “If something like that were to happen again, you’re looking at tens of billions of dollars in one locale.”
In fact, the United States’ most vulnerable transportation infrastructure lies in coastal areas, particularly the Gulf Coast region hit by Katrina, and the Eastern Seaboard, according to the report’s authors.
“I would call it our most significant area of risk,” Schwartz said.
Global sea levels could rise an average of 7 to 23 inches in this century as a result of higher temperatures, according to the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, an international scientific body. This could cause major flooding in coastal areas, cutting off vital transit systems, the report says.
In addition to closed roads and reduced clearance under bridges, flooding may shut down runways at the top 50 airports operating in these areas, many of which serve some of the highest-density populations in the United States.
In order to address these problems, infrastructure experts, businesses and government all need to join in the adaptation effort, Schwartz said.
“We’re asking the federal government to play an important role in coordinating the collection of information related to climate change and support research that looks at climate change and … what its impacts will be on transportation,” he said.
Some states have already begun to asses impacts. For instance, in 2001 Columbia University scientists looked at the potential effects of climate change on infrastructure in New York City. They predicted the combination of storms and higher sea levels could inundate low-lying neighborhoods in Manhattan and surrounding areas, shutting down the entire metropolitan transportation system, much of which lies below ground.
Massachusetts is also wading into the issue. Home to a major highway system that runs along the coast connecting Washington, D.C., and New Hampshire, the state plans to implement a new program to address infrastructure this year, said Luisa Paiewonsky, commissioner of the Massachusetts Highway Department.
“We’re starting to assess the vulnerability of our infrastructure in light of climate change,” Paiewonsky told United Press International. “It will help us identify what’s vulnerable, then how to address those problems, then we’ll decide how much it costs” and how we can fund it.
While higher sea levels will probably be a top concern for Massachusetts, climate change poses different infrastructure threats in other areas. The NRC report listed five top concerns: increases in very hot days and heat waves, Arctic temperatures, intense participation and frequent strong hurricanes, in addition to sea level rise.
Different areas of the United States will be faced with different concerns, said Tom Karl, who worked on the NRC report.
“Out West, there is a concern that dryer conditions could cause droughts,” Karl told UPI. “With increased heat, you may be able to get out there and work (on infrastructure) fewer days each year.”
Hotter temperatures could also cause problems for airports. As temperatures rise, the air thins. Under these conditions, airplanes require a longer takeoff distance, and many U.S. runways may not be long enough to compensate, said Karl, a senior scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Other infrastructure damage could include rail-track deformities caused by high temperatures, bridge support cave-ins caused by thawing permafrost in the Arctic and flooding of evacuation routes caused by heavier rainfall.
Some weather changes, though, may have a positive impact on transportation, according to the report.
“Over time, fewer snow days and ice enhances our ability to use roads,” said Karl, pointing to the Midwest as an area where this might be particularly helpful.
Although transportation businesses consider weather when make decisions, few have begun to incorporate climate change into their planning. Many may be waiting for more concrete evidence on risks and impacts to be released, including CSX Transportation, a railroad company operating in 23 states.
“Obviously, the scientists continue to gather data in regards to climate change, and as that data becomes available, we will include it in our planning,” Gary Sease, CSX spokesman, told UPI.
The company has firsthand experience with weather damage, after Hurricane Katrina destroyed up to $300 million of CSX railroad tracks in 2005. But costs kept CSX from moving the tracks farther inland, Sease said, and they were rebuilt in the same location.
Cost is likely to be the major obstacle for addressing this issue, said Nancy Humphrey, one of the report’s committee members.
“This is terribly expensive, and that’s why there needs to be a different approach,” said Humphrey, senior staff officer with the National Academy of Sciences.
Humphrey pointed to the aftermath of the 1989 California earthquake as a potential model for how to undertake today’s climate-change challenge.
“They were faced with retrofitting 24,000 bridges across the state,” Humphrey told UPI.
The money and manpower to do so were not available, so the state fixed the most critical bridges, made upgrades whenever renovating facilities and re-assessed their most vital needs.
“That kind of thinking is what we need (today),” she said.