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BOSTON — Boston-based consortium that includes a former MBTA general manager has emerged as the front-runner to operate the T’s commuter rail service, agency officials and rail specialists say, in a move that could establish it as an eventual private-sector competitor to Amtrak, reports the Boston Globe.

The fight to replace Amtrak as operator of the T’s commuter rail service, with its 140,000 commuters per weekday the largest passenger rail contract to be put out to bid in the country, has been one of the most hotly contested rail battles in recent history.

With three bidders, the competition was considered close. But last week’s disqualification of Bay State Transit Services, a consortium of British rail giant Stagecoach Group and Herzog Transit Services of St. Joseph, Mo., for submitting an incomplete proposal leaves the T with two very distinct bidders.

The Massachusetts Bay Commuter Rail Co., made up of European rail powerhouse Connex, Canada’s Bombardier of North America, and a Boston transportation consulting firm headed by former MBTA general manager James F. O’Leary, is expected to get the T’s nod in coming weeks, according to MBTA officials who spoke on condition of anonymity.

The so-called MassBay conglomerate has become the frontrunner somewhat by default, they said: It has far more experience, money, and worldwide clout to run the nation’s fourth largest commuter rail operation than Billerica’s Guilford Rail Systems.

Guilford, a privately held firm, has, according to railroad analysts, a poor reputation and a checkered history running commuter rail for the T, and has thus far failed to make any overtures to organized labor, a crucial step in making itself a viable candidate.

In 1986 the firm was released from its MBTA contract following a turbulent three-month rail strike that, at times, stranded thousands of commuter rail riders.

”If I were in charge of awarding a commuter rail contract, and I wanted a company that could meet the critical scheduling demands that commuters require, I’d stay as far away from Guilford as possible,” said one Wall Street railroad analyst who spoke on condition of anonymity.

The MBTA board of directors will choose the winning bid following a recommendation from T General Manager Michael H. Mulhern, who could make his support known within a month.

The new five-year contract, estimated to be worth about $1 billion, is set to begin in July. Amtrak officials did not bid on the contract because they said the terms were too financially risky.

David Fink, Guilford’s executive vice president, declined to be interviewed for this article, saying only, ”May the best company win.”

Guilford operates freight lines in every New England state except Rhode Island. It bought the former Boston & Maine Railroad in 1983. It does not now operate commuter lines. It is owned by Portsmouth, N.H.-based Guilford Transportation Industries and its main stockholder is Timothy Mellon of the Pittsburgh banking family.

Guilford also owns the tracks used by Amtrak’s popular Downeaster service, connecting Boston to Portland, Maine.

France’s CGEA Connex, parent company of Connex North America Inc. and the majority partner in the MassBay conglomerate, is the largest private passenger transportation company in Europe, with 40,000 employees working for about 700 authorities worldwide.

Connex, however, has had its own share of problems.

Two years ago, after four years of a seven-year contract, it became the first rail company to lose its contract to run a segment of British rail. The firm was accused of poor on-time reliability and of using old trains on the southern England line. In one case, a train was canceled after an infestation of fleas attacked the engineer, according to news accounts.

Connex is among Britain’s least popular companies, according to recent British press reports.

Still, the company was recently placed on a short list of firms to run high-speed trains between Manchester and Yorkshire and is trying to buff up its image. The company’s French CEO has even ridden trains with passengers to try to win favorable reviews.

Despite its problem in Britain, Connex rail service in other locales, from Stockholm to Melbourne, is considered among the best worldwide.

Bombardier, one of Connex’s partners in bidding for commuter rail service, also has had trouble. As the manufacturer of the trains used by Acela, Amtrak’s high-speed rail service, Bombardier was blamed for the faulty brackets that shut down the service for a part of the summer.

Bombardier and Amtrak have sparred over the Acela contract and each has filed suit against the other over contractual issues.

Still, Bombardier also enjoys a generally positive reputation and has contracts to maintain 3,000 rail vehicles worldwide, as well as to maintain the commuter fleets in Los Angeles and Toronto.

The third partner in the group is Alternate Concepts Inc., a Boston-based transportation and management consulting firm where O’Leary, the former T general manager, is the principal.

Jane F. Daly and Richard M. Brown are the other ACI principals with MBTA ties – Daly served as deputy general manager 1981 to 1989, the same time Brown served as treasurer. Jack Leary, another former T executive and former general manager of Philadelphia’s SEPTA, is serving as ACI’s managing director.

In assessing the competition between Guilford and MassBay, analysts and T officials based their opinions on past reputations and not on the actual T bids, which have remained confidential.

Because of past labor strife, establishing positive labor relations early on is considered crucial, MBTA officials and rail industry analysts say.

Guilford is the only one of the firms involved in the bidding process not to reach out to organized labor, according to union officials.

Charlie Moneypenny, leader of the Transportation Workers Union of America, said Guilford officials told him that they could not speak with labor officials because they believed the T’s bidding rules forbid it.

But, Moneypenny said, ”We couldn’t find anything in the [rules] that prohibits them from doing it. I think we have some idea as to what the Massachusetts Bay Commuter Railroad would like to do, but we have no idea what Guilford would like to do.”

MassBay helped its cause with union workers by hiring Kevin Lyons, a former Amtrak official who was popular with organized labor. He was fired for failing to implement Amtrak’s plans to slash the T’s commuter rail workforce.