(The following story by Joseph Ryan appeared on the Daily Herald website on June 4.)
CHICAGO — The future for Chicago-area bus and train users is looking more costly and frustrating.
Pace may be forced to cut suburban routes by 20 percent and raise fares come November.
The CTA could close two el lines, drastically hike fares and slash 40 percent of its bus service in September.
Metra may put off expansions — including the suburb-to-suburb STAR Line — and repairs, leading to more delays. Fare hikes and noticeable service cuts will hit next year.
This is the region’s bleak transportation future if lawmakers fail to approve transit-funding tax hikes in the coming weeks, argue CTA, Pace and Metra leaders.
Whether these doomsday predictions ever come true remains to be seen. But it is clear some service cuts and fare hikes are becoming more likely as time runs out for lawmakers to fix the financial mess.
“There will be real impacts on the quality of life for everyone,” warns state Rep. Julie Hamos, an Evanston Democrat and transit leader.
Lawmakers largely ignored the pleas for transit cash on Thursday as they overran a critical mile marker in the budget process. Now any new funding will require a “yes” vote from a politically challenging 60 percent of legislators, instead of a simple majority.
Still, as long as lawmakers are debating legislation in Springfield, transit leaders say hope remains.
“I think there is a real chance,” says Jim Reilly, chair of the Regional Transportation Authority that oversees the area’s buses and trains.
The transit agencies want a quarter-percent sales tax hike in the collar counties and a Chicago real estate transfer fee to come up with more than $400 million a year, about half of the sales tax money they currently garner.
But lawmakers, most of whom have been indifferent to the issue, are set to go home in late June and leave CTA, Metra and Pace leaders to decide how to handle the fallout.
When their work is finished this summer, transit leaders claim Chicago could become one of the most expensive cities in the country to board a bus or train.
Yet, the problem won’t be solved even then. In 2008, the pressure to hike transit taxes will grow as even deeper service cuts are pondered to fill bigger budget holes.
“Frankly, if they don’t have the political will this year, it is very hard to imagine they would next year,” Reilly said, noting 2008 is an election year.
Transit riders won’t be the only ones to suffer, experts argue. Road traffic will get worse as will the economy, they predict.
“The Chicago region will become a more difficult place for companies to do business and a more difficult place for people to find jobs,” said Chicago Metropolis 2020 President George Ranney in a letter to lawmakers last week.
The CTA is the only agency so far to lay out a detailed plan to deal with its $100 million shortfall. The preliminary proposal includes cutting service on the Yellow and Purple el lines and raising fares from $2 to $3.75 during rush hour, while skirting new buses and trains.
CTA President Ron Huberman calls the plan “the least drastic of the options available to us.”
Given the size of their budget gaps, floating around 15 percent, Pace and Metra are in the same corner: faced with unpalatable service cuts and fare hikes to keep at least part of the system running.
Facing a $24 million shortfall this year in a $160 million budget, Pace Executive Director T.J. Ross said 300 of 1,500 employees could lose their jobs as weekend, nighttime, special event and some rush-hour service gets the ax.
“We will have to get as many people as we can to work and school with what we have left,” Ross says.
Special service for the disabled also is in danger as the RTA is short $27 million out of a total $75 million in that area. Since federal law mandates transit for the disabled, the prospect of significant cuts is unlikely, but fare hikes are always an option.
Even minor changes to service or cost would leave those depending on such rides struggling, transit leaders say.
“Without public transit, they literally have no means to leave their homes,” says Lynn O’Shea, president of the Association for Individual Development, which serves 3,000 suburban disabled people.
Metra commuters also would feel the pinch. Its hole this year is about $71 million out of $500 million. Putting off planned maintenance and expansions can get the agency to 2008, but then sizable hikes and cuts to weekend and express services are likely.
At the very least, the long-sought STAR Line from O’Hare International Airport to Joliet, which is a decade away without any funding changes, would be delayed even further. Other improvements on north and west suburban lines also would have to wait.
Moreover, work on aging locomotives, railcars and rail yards would be put off another year. Metra Director Phil Pagano has warned of resulting slow and delayed service “in the very near future.”
The Metra routes most likely to get cut include reverse commute and weekend services. Massive fare hikes are probable. A 5 percent increase in 2006 brought in $10 million, so even a 20 percent hike might not be enough.
If all this seems overly negative, well, it is still the reality, transit leaders say.
Even Illinois Auditor General Bill Holland, who has shown no hesitation in taking on mismanaged state offices, sided with the transit agencies earlier this year.
“There is no question there are real (financial) needs,” he said after releasing a 500-page March audit that found only relatively minor management gaffes.
The financial problems leading to this point have been mounting for years. Regional sales taxes that fund transit have remained relatively stagnant, rising from $623 million in 1985 to just under $800 million today.
For the last three years, each agency has put off maintenance and expansion to keep the systems running. This time around that is not an option, transit leaders say.
“I don’t believe for one minute that this will just go away,” Hamos says. “This is not a surprise to anyone.”