(The following story by Drew DeSilver appeared on the Seattle Times website on January 9.)
SEATTLE — The floodwaters that have severed Washington’s main north-south and east-west highways likely will wash tens of millions of dollars out of the state’s economy, as people, parts and merchandise sit stranded.
But the economy’s already wobbly condition may, paradoxically, lessen the impact from the closures of Interstates 5 and 90, analysts say.
The closed section of I-5 near Centralia normally is used by 55,000 vehicles a day, including 10,000 trucks, according to the state Department of Transportation (WSDOT). Nearly 40,000 vehicles, among them 7,000 trucks, cross the Cascades at I-90’s Snoqualmie Pass each day.
“We have totally stopped commerce in this state,” state Transportation Secretary Paula Hammond said Thursday morning. “I’ve seen trucks lined up on the freeway headed southbound. … I hope they are not thinking the road is going to open anytime soon.”
A WSDOT analysis of last winter’s closures of I-5 and I-90 concluded that together they cost the state nearly $75 million in lost output, $23.15 million in lost personal income and $3.8 million in lost tax revenue.
The December 2007 floods, which closed I-5 around Centralia for four days, also caused $18 million in damage to state highways, according to the report. The four-day closure of I-90 in January 2008 because of snow and avalanches cost the state $9.1 million in extra labor and materials.
The Lewis County flooding also has forced the closure of BNSF’s main rail line between Seattle and Portland. An average 50 freight trains, each carrying 100 cars, use that line daily, BNSF spokesman Gus Melonas said.
Many businesses have moved to “just-in-time” inventory systems over the past couple of decades, keeping on hand only a few days’ worth of parts or merchandise.
“Because inventories are lean, they are more time-sensitive,” Seattle-based economist Glenn Pascall said. “You’re saving money by not having unsold inventory on your shelves, but you are more vulnerable to the slightest hiccup in deliveries.”
On the other hand, Pascall said, the economic slump means fewer goods are moving between Western Washington and the rest of the country, diminishing the overall impact of the road closures.
In a statement, Boeing said that while freight coming up I-5 or over the mountains has been delayed, so far there’s been no impact on airplane production. Air freight will be used as necessary for high-priority parts, the company said.
Robin Easton, a spokesman for Bellevue-based Paccar, said the truck maker probably won’t feel any impact on its manufacturing operations unless the highways are closed at least a week.