(The following story by Bill Stewart appeared on the Portland Oregonian website on May 20.)
VANCOUVER, Wash. — Washington’s public ports can expect sustained growth — pushed by more shipping containers in Puget Sound and export grains in the lower Columbia River — but it will take work on highways, rail lines and waterways, according to a forecast released Wednesday.
A lineup of consultants told the Washington Public Ports Association, meeting in Vancouver, that one in three Washington jobs depends on international trade and that opportunities will continue to grow.
But Paul Sorensen of BST Associates in Kirkland warned the rosy forecast did not consider infrastructure problems that are slowing truck and train cargo. Railroads need more tracks and bypasses around congested areas such as Vancouver’s switching yards, and trucks get trapped in freeway congestion.
He said trade with China is the most promising, and Japan’s business will be the slowest growing. He predicted ports in Washington could see annual growth rates of 5 percent to 6 percent during the next five years.
Sorensen detailed the differing futures of various cargo:
Containers are still the fastest-growing trade component, and Puget Sound ports have the only high-volume terminals in the state. Portland will continue to dominate the Columbia River container-export business, but that growth is said to depend on whether the Columbia River channel is deepened by dredging.
Imported autos will show slow, steady growth. That growth is forecast at 0.7 percent annually in Vancouver.
Mixed or loose small-lot cargoes are being threatened by container shipping.
Log exports will remain rare, but imported logs will increase.
Dry bulk cargoes face mixed futures. Alumina, the primary ingredient in making aluminum, is down; petroleum coke will increase.
Grain, especially Midwest varieties, will increase, but competition will grow as former customer nations such as India start to sell grain.
Sorensen said hauling port cargo will mean 2.5 percent annual growth for the railroads, especially on lines serving lower Columbia River harbors. By comparison, truck growth is pegged at 0.8 percent annually.
But former railroader Dave Hatzenbuhler, president of the Federal Way consulting firm Mainline Management, said numerous important stretches of rail are nearing capacity. He said the Burlington Northern Santa Fe east-west tunnel at Stevens Pass east of Everett will reach saturation by 2007 on peak days, while the Stampede Pass tunnel cannot handle containers stacked two high.
Hatzenbuhler said the railroads — Burlington Northern Santa Fe and Union Pacific — need to build shortcuts that bypass switching yards. He cited one at the Port of Seattle’s Duwamish Corridor, which will cost as much as $12 million but will save extensive maneuvering for trains to reach two cargo terminals. Another track arrangement at Fife, near Tacoma, blocks Burlington Northern from direct access to its Stampede Pass main line.
In many cases, Hatzenbuhler said, the solution involves reinstalling passing spurs and sections of double tracks that were ripped out about 20 years ago. But he warned the port officials not to expect immediate action “because the railroads have much worse situations in other regions.”