(The following article by Michael Cabanatuan was posted on the San Francisco Chronicle website on October 2.)
SAN FRANCISCO — Gas prices may finally have soared high enough to persuade a significant number of motorists to abandon their cars and climb aboard public transportation.
Ridership figures and observations by Bay Area transit operators show a noticeable rise in the number of people taking trains and buses since gas prices soared near, or past, $3 a gallon.
“It’s hard to figure out what’s driving it — the end of summer or gas prices,” said Christine Dunn, a spokeswoman for Caltrain and SamTrans, which have both seen a recent boost in ridership. “But we’re happy to see it.”
At the same time, Caltrans statistics for Bay Bridge traffic show a 5.8 percent decrease in traffic for this past August compared with a year earlier.
Since the beginning of September, BART has seen a 3.5 percent increase in ridership compared with a year earlier — and patronage on its beleaguered San Francisco International Airport extension shot up 7.7 percent, with the strongest growth in ridership at the South San Francisco and San Bruno stations used primarily by commuters.
Caltrain ridership climbed 8.5 percent in August over 2004, and SamTrans had 2.6 percent more passengers ride its buses. The Santa Clara Valley Transportation Authority had a 4.9 percent increase in ridership on its buses and light-rail system. Capitol Corridor trains between Sacramento and San Jose carried 6.4 percent more passengers.
In the East Bay, AC Transit officials say their transbay buses from southern Alameda County into San Francisco and across the Dumbarton Bridge have been hauling standing-room-only loads in recent weeks during commute hours, though they don’t have year-to-year passenger comparisons available.
But while soaring gas prices would seem to be the driving force behind the climbing ridership, transit officials are quick to note that other factors, either individually or in combination, could be contributing to the increase: a resurgence in the economy, which might swell the annual late-summer surge in commuting as students and workers conclude vacations; the arrival of sunny autumn weather after a dreary summer; the abundance of season-ending baseball games and early fall festivals; and traffic-tangling work on the west approach of the Bay Bridge.
“We’re certainly not in a position to attribute it to any one factor,” said Jayme Kunz, spokeswoman for the Santa Clara Valley Transportation Authority. “But it’s a great problem to have.”
Rod Diridon, head of the Mineta Transportation Institute at San Jose State University, said gas prices are undoubtedly playing a role in rising transit ridership. A 2003 survey to determine how high gas prices would have to go for most motorists to consider taking transit placed the amount at just under $3. Accounting for inflation, that price would currently be between $3 and $3.25 a gallon, he said.
“As we hit that, we’re going to see more and more people moving from automobile to transit usage as a way to get to work,” Diridon said.
As the economy fell into decline, it sent public transit into a tailspin, he said. With fewer people working, transit ridership declined and freeway congestion disappeared, which encouraged many commuters to drive instead of taking BART or the bus. At the same time, the slumping economy diminished sales tax revenues allocated to transit agencies, forcing service cuts and fare increases. And that pushed even more people away from transit.
With the economy showing signs of recovery, congestion is increasing and public transportation has stabilized and is attracting customers to new services like BART’s airport extension, new South Bay light rail lines or Caltrain’s Baby Bullet trains.
“We’ve been through these cycles before,” Diridon said, “but the biggest new variable is the extremely high price — or what we think of as the extremely high price, and it’s going to go higher — of gasoline.”
Other transit agencies around the nation are also reporting that their ridership has risen along with the price of gasoline. In Los Angeles, buses, light rail lines and the subway reported a 7.8 percent increase in August, and the Metrolink commuter railroad reported a 7 percent rise. Washington’s BART-like Metro rail system and buses set new ridership records with a 4 percent August increase. Phoenix’s bus system carried 4 percent more riders in August. Dallas’ Trinity Railway Express commuter railroad has seen ridership increase 15 percent in September.
A national opinion poll released Wednesday by a market research firm called GfK found that motorists said they would begin to turn to public transportation in significant numbers once gas hit $2.50 a gallon — a price that has been surpassed almost everywhere.
At that price, the study found, 8 percent of drivers would park their cars and take the bus, train or ferry. That increased to 16 percent at $3 a gallon, 26 percent at $3.50, 40 percent at $4 and 59 percent once the price of a gallon of gas exceeds $5. The study surveyed 2,000 adults who own cars.
Josh Matacotta, a San Francisco resident who lives in the Sunset District, works downtown and takes classes in Berkeley, is among Bay Area residents who have moved to mass transit because of the cost of filling their gas tanks.
“I used to drive a lot more often,” said the Mazda minivan owner. “My car is parked in the street almost all the time now. The only time it gets moved is for street cleaning.”
Instead of driving, Matacotta, who works for an investment banking firm, takes the Municipal Railway. A monthly Fast Pass costs him $45 — about what he spent on gasoline in a week.
“When you do the math,” he said, “it makes a lot more sense to take public transportation.”
Vallejo resident Craig Williams and his mother came to the same conclusion. Instead of driving the Chevy minivan they share to his classes at Solano College or his job as a security guard at an electronics store in Fairfield, he takes the Vallejo Transit bus. His mother got a job closer to home. Now, instead of filling the tank every couple of days — at $40 to $50 — they fill it once a week.
“We’re saving $200 to $300 every two weeks,” he said.
But while riding public transit saves money, it can also cost time. Williams has doubled his commute — from 15 minutes to a half an hour or so — but doesn’t consider that a big deal. Matacotta doesn’t mind the Muni ride downtown but finds the trip to Berkeley, which requires transferring to BART, a little too time-consuming.
“In the city, it’s fine,” he said, “but leaving the city, it’s a pain.”
Still, he said, it’s a pain that pays off. But would he consider trading his Fast Pass for his car keys?
“Maybe,” he said, “if gas goes back down to $1.99 a gallon.”