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(The following editorial appeared on the Aurora Beacon News website on November 24.)

AURORA, Ill. — Warning to all those who oppose the Canadian National purchase of the Elgin, Joliet & Eastern railroad — expect a Surface Transportation Board vote in favor of the purchase before Christmas.

Yes, people who live in communities near the tracks, and fear the near doubling of the number of freight trains along the railroad right-of-way, should be prepared for that decision. It has become clear that’s the way it’s most likely to go.

First, some industry insiders are predicting the before-Christmas decision mainly because they believe the STB and its support staff will want the case finished before a new presidential administration takes office.

Second, the more you get away from the immediate area and into places where the concern is more regional, you see that there is just too much support from the powers-that-be for the merger — in two countries.

At a recent conference in Chicago about regional infrastructure needs and the possibility of a national infrastructure program, one of the speakers was Peter Gordon MacKay, Canada’s minister of defense who also oversees its ports and entryways.

He spent more than half of his speech reminding conference attendees of the importance of trade between Canada and the U.S. — and the need to move cargo from Canadian ports throughout North America.

Some $140 billion worth of goods moved through Canadian ports last year, generating $20 billion worth of economic activity. It’s actually easier and faster for boats in the Atlantic to use the port in Halifax than in New York City.

Some $41 billion in goods is traded between Canada and Illinois.

“Chicago is a destination point for goods coming from both coasts,” MacKay said.

MacKay did not come to Chicago alone. He was part of a six-person delegation that spent a few days here, including meeting with Chicago Mayor Richard Daley. While many at the conference suggested they had “bigger fish to fry” than the potential purchase of the EJ&E by Canadian National, everyone knows the subject did come up.

Let’s not forget that even locally, Kane County hedged its bets a bit when it passed a resolution on the potential merger. While they, like everyone, is concerned that Canadian National pony up more money for possible grade separations, they also understand that in a regional concept, there is plenty of support for the merger.

Even if the decision does end up lopping over into a new administration, don’t expect that will change the potential decision. Yes, as a U.S. senator, Barack Obama was on record opposing the railroad merger; but as president, he will not have the luxury of thinking so parochially.

So while some of the numbers may change, the end decision looks to be set.