(The following editorial appeared on the Atlanta Journal-Constitution website on December 30.)
ATLANTA — Several prominent Georgians say the state shouldn’t invest in commuter rail right now because there isn’t sufficient demand for it. Those skeptics have a lot in common with folks who stare at storm clouds but won’t buy an umbrella until it starts raining. In the long run, they’ll both wind up all wet.
That type of thinking has had a paralyzing effect on our transportation policy. Although it isn’t always immediately evident, the consequences of such inaction are steadily growing worse.
In the case of commuter rail, it’s getting harder to ignore the obvious: metro Atlanta is expected to add a staggering 2 million residents in the next 20 years, with many of them driving back and forth to work on roads that are intolerably congested.
Because there isn’t enough money or asphalt or land to add the lane-miles needed to handle all that traffic, rail along certain heavily traveled corridors will have to be a major part of the solution.
Even officials at the Georgia Department of Transportation (not usually the most transit-friendly bunch) seem to be finally getting serious about commuter rail. Recently, DOT commissioner Harold Linnenkohl broke with the agency’s auto-centricity, writing a letter to Gov. Sonny Perdue advancing the possibility of launching passenger rail service between Atlanta and Lovejoy, the first leg of a longer route that will someday connect Atlanta and Macon.
To be sure, the line to Lovejoy lacks the cachet of another proposed route between the capital city and Athens, capital of the Bulldog Nation. But for several reasons, Macon has more going for it, at least right now.
Topping that list is the fact that Georgia has had $87 million in state and federal money lying around for years to complete the initial phase of the Macon rail project, which is estimated to cost about $106 million. Unless that funding is used, the feds will eventually want it back.
In addition, the route has already received a favorable environmental review that’s necessary to proceed. The longer Georgia twiddles its thumbs, the more expensive the construction costs will be.
Another important rationale for the Macon line is the agreeable relationship the state has with Norfolk Southern Railroad, which already runs freight trains along the route and would benefit from state-funded track improvements if and when passenger service begins.
Those realities haven’t hushed rail critics, some of whom dismiss the Atlanta-to-Macon rail line based on the failed Greyhound commuter bus experiment that ended this year. Generally speaking, buses and trains are like apples and oranges; lack of patronage on one mode isn’t a reliable indicator for the relative potential of the other. The projected ridership for the Atlanta-to-Lovejoy route is about 1,800 passengers a day, far more than a few express buses could carry.
Of course, the other stumbling block is the projected $7 million annual operating costs for the line, of which only about $3 million could be recovered from passenger fares. Georgia could use another pot of federal funds set aside for congestion relief, but only for the first three years of operation. After that, state taxpayers would likely have to assume the costs to keep it running.
DOT hasn’t received a reply from Perdue, who by all accounts remains ambivalent — if not outwardly hostile — toward commuter rail. With his administration also consumed by budget worries, the governor has been hesitant to take any bold steps in transportation policy or planning.
While Georgia’s economic outlook isn’t promising at the moment, that won’t always be the case. That’s why it’s foolish for us to ignore the inevitable when we should be expanding the transportation network that will be critical for the state’s future. Waiting for the rain to fall — for the traffic to further deteriorate, as it most assuredly will — just isn’t an option.